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Sink or Swim Together
An overview of the history of southern Africa clearly shows how
integrated
our economies are and how interdependent we have always been. This is
not
altogether supported by the statistics but that does not take account
of
informal sector activity as well as transport and communications.
But increasingly we are now also connected by politics. The new world
order,
within which we all have to operate and live, demands that individual
States
must conform to certain standards that are increasingly being accepted
as
international norms. We are required to follow democratic principles in
how
we choose our leadership. We are expected to limit our budget deficit
to
somewhere around 3 per cent of GDP. We must accept the new rules for
trade
within the global village - free trade and competitive markets are the
sine
qua non of business. We are expected to observe and respect all basic
human
and political rights.
Fail in any of these areas and countries immediately face sanctions of
one
kind or the other. Not mandatory UN sanctions such as were imposed on
the
Rhodesian government after 1965, but more subtle forms of sanctions.
Zimbabwe is a prime example of the latter - when we started to really
break
the rules in the mid 90's we were faced with restricted access to the
world'
s multilateral banking system. The ADB, the WB and the IMF all
gradually
suspended any activity to support what they saw as a delinquent system
of
fiscal and political governance.
The international community (the rich members that is) also gradually
froze
us out of their system of recognition and support. Foreign aid declined
and
in many cases was simply suspended until defined problems were
corrected.
This has not happened and we are now almost completely denied foreign
aid
and assistance by richer countries and regions like the EU.
As these early sanctions took effect and did not work, the
international
community ratchets up the pressure. Delegations are made unwelcome at
international meetings. This can be quite subtle - no invitations to
dinners, no formal recognition and even denial of visa's and other
forms of
political sanction. We are well into this phase - our representatives
have
disrupted relations between the EU and the ACP States and are also
proving
to be problematical in other forums.
Eventually the only places on earth that such rogue States find succor
are
those connected to the UN system and with other rogue States who share
our
status as a global polecat. Someone sent me the latest rankings of the
polecat States and said that he was surprised to see that we were at
number
15 from the bottom. I replied that it did not really matter as the muck
at
the bottom of this particular hole was pretty deep and we were all in
the
same grunge.
When South Africa was the "Apartheid State" and a polecat in its own
league,
we were always glad to have access to the Beira and Maputo harbors and
for
the barrier provided by the Limpopo River and its crocodiles. These
things
protected us from the side effects of having a neighbor who was persona
non
grata in the global community. That position is now reversed and with a
vengeance. We do not have the economy or the regional status that South
Africa had when it was grappling with the question of its status and in
some
ways we are almost more isolated today, than South Africa was in those
days - sure we are still in the UN system, but only just.
But we are small - just 3 per cent of the GDP of South Africa, a real
minnow
in the regional and global picture. Does this question of our political
and
economic status matter? Sure it does because like it or not we sink or
swim
together. That is exactly what President Mbeki said after the recent
SADC
summit in Gaborone. Every country in the SADC except Zimbabwe is
recording
rapid economic and social progress, even the strife torn ones like the
Congo. We are really the rotten apple in this barrel and we are holding
back
the entire region and might even threaten the fragile security and
stability
we now enjoy. Why?
Perhaps the key is in South Africa itself. There the coalition that
brought
South Africa through the turbulent days of the post apartheid
transition to
democracy is falling apart. The State President, Thabo Mbeki who looked
so
good a few months ago, faces an open revolt over his decision to
prosecute
his previous deputy for corruption and abuse of power. This struggle
for
power inside the ANC is tearing it apart and if it is not addressed and
resolved it could weaken Mr. Mbeki precisely at the time when he has to
deal
with the rogue State on his borders in the north. Mugabe knows this and
like
any mischief-maker, he will exploit this conflict and thereby make
things
that much worse.
Capital flight from South Africa has been a problem for years;
initially it
took the form of South Africans investing abroad to spread their risks.
Then
it took the form of trying to move resources out of what was seen as a
volatile and uncertain place and just as it is starting to turn, the
very
institution that was generating this newfound confidence in South
Africa
starts to fall apart. South Africa has always had a radical left and it
is
this element that now wishes to assert its independence and demand what
it
sees as its rightful place in the exercise of power in South Africa.
This is a delicate moment and it is no time for brinkmanship. The
global
community has a stake in southern Africa and indeed in Africa itself as
a
continent. South Africa is just too important an element in that
equation to
allow a minnow like Zimbabwe to exacerbate the situation and threaten
the
stability of South Africa. It really is time that this pipsqueak
country
called Zimbabwe was sorted out - and fast, so that instead of being
part of
the problem we can help strengthen regional stability and growth.
It is not possible for the local political opposition to effect change
by
itself. If change is going to happen it requires a catalyst - some
factor
inserted from the outside. Such a catalyst was agreed at the G8 summit
and
both China and India committed themselves to the deal. Mbeki was given
the
responsibility of following it through on the ground - the powers that
be
must revise their thinking in that respect and ask if he is any longer
in a
position to exercise that role. Perhaps he has his hands full and it is
time
for someone like Nigeria to step up to the plate. I learned back in the
immediate post independence era in Zimbabwe that the super powers have
huge
interventionist capacity. Perhaps it is time to use a little on this
corner
of the world for the sake of the region as a whole.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 7th September 2005.
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