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Statistics and Strategy
A friend sent me a table yesterday that sets out the statistical
situation
as derived from the Governments own figures of our economic performance
since 1996. Why 1996? Because that was the year in which our exports
peaked
and our GDP reached US$8,5 billion. The stats from that year onwards
simply
nose dive.
Gross Domestic Product (the usual measure of total economic output of a
country) has declined by almost 50 per cent. Income per capita has
fallen
from US$830 per person to US$358 - a drop of nearly 60 per cent. Our
GDP is
now nearly 20 per cent below the level of our GDP in 1980 - after 16
years
of mandatory sanctions and 8 years of civil war. Our GDP per capita now
classifies us as a nation of very poor people. If the average GDP per
capita
is at that level and we still have some very wealthy people - goodness
only
knows what the incomes of the bottom third of our population have
become.
On Tuesday our beloved State President told the nation that he was
expecting
growth of 1 to 2 per cent in 2006 and stated that this was due to a
recovery
in agriculture. Well, the real news is that the figures issued by his
own
Ministry of Finance and the Reserve Bank point to another year - the
7th in
a row, when the economy will decline by over 5 per cent. Every sector
is
down on last year - including agriculture and we have just had the most
perfect farming season I can recall.
Pretty dismal reading. Of course these are just the stark economic
facts -
they say nothing about the rampant corruption, the erosion of living
standards and the total destruction of all forms of savings leaving
pensioners in dire straits. Can this go on - yes it can and if it does
the
consequences will be catastrophic. Increasing movement of people across
borders, rising levels of internal displacement and a rapid decline in
population due to increased mortality and emigration.
There are three options -
1. Leave things as they are, drift along and accept that there is
little we
can do about the situation. Yesterday in the British Parliament Tony
Blair
basically said just that - there was 'little they could do to influence
matters'.
2. Go the Mbeki route - engineer Mugabe's early retirement, adopt
amendment
number 19 to the Lancaster House constitution and allow Parliament to
appoint his successor, extend the life of this government to 2010 and
create
a fictional 'government of national unity' with some international
(UN?)
support.
3. Go down the road chosen by the MDC - throw everything we have into a
short non-violent struggle to force Zanu to accept they have failed and
cannot get us back on the road to the future. Get them into a national
conference and there thrash out what to do about all our problems and
set up
a transitional government that will take us to elections as soon as
possible
so that the people can chose who will lead us out of the hole we are in
at
present.
Quite clearly option one is simply suicide - we cannot go on as we have
been. To do so would reduce Zimbabwe to an impoverished backwater with
a few
million people living at a level of about US$100 per annum and
virtually no
future for anyone except a tiny political minority who lived in great
(feudal) wealth. Do not say it cannot happen - it is happening in many
countries and the global community simply does not have the will (they
have
the means and the resources) to do anything about matters until a real
Sierra Leone or Rwanda type situation happens.
I fume when I see the pictures of educated African refugees in Europe,
holding sit ins in Churches and marching on the streets to protest
their
situation. They should be home in Somalia, in the Sudan fighting for
their
rights as citizens and demanding performance from their leaders. By
fleeing
the continent they not only bring shame on all of us who live in
Africa, but
they make the situation in their countries more hopeless. Stay and
fight -
for democracy, for human rights, for political rights, for jobs and
prosperity. These things do not come easily or cheap.
Option two is being hatched as I write - but very soon its architects
will
run into Robert Mugabe who is simply demanding that he be allowed to
complete his current term and is saying to anyone who will listen - 'I
am
ready to do four more years'. It is a non-starter and thank goodness
(or
Robert) because that solution would leave the Zimbabwean populace in
the
hands of the same corrupt despotic collection of clowns that have been
responsible for the mess we are in now. It would do nothing to restore
the
rule of law; it would not restore our basic freedoms and would not be
either
legal or democratic.
So we are thrown back onto our own resources and courage. Everyone I
speak
to says that we (Zimbabweans) do not have what it takes to topple this
dictatorship. This is not Bosnia, the Philippines or Russia -
Zimbabweans
are simply too passive and compliant to do what is required. One such
commentator said to me today - you would be better off launching the
struggle in South Africa where you have two or three million very angry
Zimbabweans. Sure - that might be true; it is also true that if those
angry
young men came back - we could probably sort out the mafia here in
short
order. But that is not going to happen.
We have two more rallies this weekend - one in Mutare and another in
Harare.
I am going to both because I want to see and sense the mood of the
people.
My own view is that Zimbabweans are ready to do what is needed and we
need
not fear the armed forces - they are as fed up as we are. A business
executive told me yesterday that these situations are often like an
eggshell - hard and impervious, until it cracks. Then it just splinters
and
falls apart.
We are about to hit this egg hard - the egghead is nervous and worried.
He
might well be because he has no certainly that when this situation
cracks
open, that he will be able to protect himself from a very angry and
frustrated people. Remember East Germany just before the wall came down
-
tough, strong and invincible, until the egg cracked and then there was
nowhere to go.
Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 2oth April 2006
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